Depends.
Depends on condition. New in box, with all the paperwork, unfired would likely be worth the most. More than a non-commemorative of the same model. How much more?
Depends on the occasion. Certain issues were more popular and continue to be more in desire. (Like the Win 92 John Wayne in 32-20--but even that may have peaked a few years back) Who wants to buy it?
Depends on finding an interested party. Is that person a commemorative collector or does he think that one just looks neat? Does it fill the last hole in his collection? Is it the correct caliber?
Depends on whether he collects any caliber or only a certain one.
Depends on your getting it in front of at least one of the guys that "just gotta have it".
Depends on how soon you need to sell it, or how long you can leave it on the block.
Depends on whether you waited too long to sell, like with the Win 92 John Wayne.
Depends on whether you can sell it face to face or if you have to pay a commission to an auction site. Or have to pay transfer fees. Or have to ship it somewhere. Gun shows are good places to sell, but only to the public. A dealer will need to make 75-100 back over what he paid you for it.
Depends on whether it's close to rifle season for deer in a state that allows hunting with 30-30.
The only guns that I've made money on at the sale were ones that grew in demand for reasons I did not anticipate. Can't say that I ever increased my investment on a limited edition or commemorative or something I thought would be worth more. But that's not to say that you won't or can't. You probably don't remember when gun shops had surplus rifles displayed in barrels. Mausers, Springfields, Krags, Swiss Schmidt-Rubens, Springfield Trapdoors, etc. Nothing more than 10.00. Those would have been worth collecting, a few barrels of each...
Nearly all guns that appreciate in value are the ones that are already collector items due to age, scarcity, or provenance. Document, keep safe, wait, repeat. Enjoy owning them, but not shooting them. Try to guess when they've appreciated enough to sell at a profit. There are more likely ways to make money. Just about anything else. Certainly mutual funds are more likely to increase.
Unless you're buying an already known collector, you're better off to buy what you like and then shoot it. If it goes up in value, good for you. If it doesn't, well you enjoyed shooting it, didn't you?
If you want to put a price on your 1970 Centennial, research it on Gun Broker and see what they are going for now.
Good luck.