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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
I was thinking today about the striking similarities between the current ammo .22 situation and that 2006-2007 time period when people were paying $300,000 for a $150,000 house. All the rampant "flipping" that was going on... and how hard it was for financially prudent individuals to be able to purchase a home for a reasonable price they could afford due to prices getting jacked up higher and higher.... The pricing got so far out of line compared to peoples income levels.

Then I thought about those people must have felt when the market turned... and they came to the realization that they paid twice as much for something as they should have.... or even needed to.

When the .22 ammo market finally turns... those people who are now paying $75 or some ridiculous price are going to feel like a bunch of idiots when the prices fall back into line... and they can actually find and garner .22lr at say $25 a brick again. Or, even the pawnshop owner that pays $50 for a brick so he can flip it for $75.

Does anyone else see the striking similarities between the current .22lr situation and the recent real estate/financial crisis???

It puts a smile on my face...to know that the people who are contributing to this /22lr problem for the rest of us... are going to be the ones left holding the bag on some really overpriced .22lr sitting in the shelf in their home. For many of the gougers/resellers, they will not be able to dump it all before the market turns....

I would feel like the biggest jughead in the world paying $75 for a commodity product that I can procure and replace for $25. The people who are WAY overpaying and contributing to this mess WILL eventually get what they deserve.
 

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I see what you mean but this is different. What can you do with a house besides live in it or try to resell for profit? What can you do with non-reloadable ammo? USE it or resell it. The difference is if you get stuck with ammo you can still shoot it. Can't make use of the house other than living in it....the house is not a consumable.
 
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You're absolutely right, just as the artificially created shortage of houses ended, the artificially created shortage of .22 will end one day and prices will drop. The big difference of course is that some of the people who bought overpriced houses were left with a loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars, while someone who buys twenty bricks and overpays by $50/brick will only be out a grand if the price plummets. At the same time, a lot of the people buying ammo at inflated prices are buying now because they want to use it, not hoard it. If it's worth $75 to someone to have ammo to shoot now rather than at an unknown point in the future when it's freely available at reasonable prices, by all means let them pay the added price.

I've chosen to take advantage of the shortage by buying a nice Marlin 60 that in my opinion was undervalued, probably due to the ammo shortage. I'd buy more .22 guns now if I had the money, as they probably won't get any cheaper and stand a good chance of increasing in value once the ammo shortage ends. I've also taken the opportunity to resell a few bricks for a profit. I'm not making much money and as you pointed out I'm running the risk of getting stuck with inventory I can only sell for a loss, but it has helped a little. Shortages like this one can be used to your benefit, if you're prepared to take advantage of them.
 

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I don't think we will ever see real cheap 22LR again, but it would be nice to see prices stabilize.
Since 22LR is so expensive I will just focus on other rounds and reload, if I can find the components.
 

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I have bought around 1700 rounds at Walmart in the last 5 weeks at normal pricing. I also believe the pricing at Walmart will drop when the market is again flooded with .22. And it will be..

Your scenario is more liken to the flippers that were buying 900.00 Colt 6920 AR15 that sold at Walmart and selling it the same day for the 2200.00..I was literally laughing at those fools that were buying. They would actually fight over who was going to be the victim that was going to get screwed..It was hilarious. Those people took a big hit..
 

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20 years ago a brick of 22's was $8.

2 years ago they were $25, now they are about $50. I'm not sure i'm buying that theory.

Ammo prices work like gas prices. They go up like crazy, they go down 20% from the highs and all of a sudden people call them "cheap".

It's a human condition. They'll get you used to seeing a price, they drop it a bit and now it's a "good deal".

P.s: i also charge more for the work i do, can't work for the same price as 5 years ago when the cost of gas was roughly 50% less.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
20 years ago a brick of 22's was $8.

2 years ago they were $25, now they are about $50. I'm not sure i'm buying that theory.

Ammo prices work like gas prices. They go up like crazy, they go down 20% from the highs and all of a sudden people call them "cheap".

It's a human condition. They'll get you used to seeing a price, they drop it a bit and now it's a "good deal".

P.s: i also charge more for the work i do, can't work for the same price as 5 years ago when the cost of gas was roughly 50% less.
Huh... by your own account, you buy the theory that prices went up $17 in a span of 20 years... and $25 in a span of 2 years... as some type of normal economic process?

Bricks of .22 can still be had at retail prices of $20-30 if you look.

Somebody is contributing to the current pricing/shortage even paying $50 for a brick. I'm not contending that homes & ammo are the same, nor that these situations are the exact same. ONLY that there are similarities. I think a lot of people are really going to REGRET paying WAY TOO MUCH for .22lr at the crazy prices being marketed and reported today. Just as they regretted paying WAY too much for a single family home during the 2006-07 time period. Jeez... I wonder if it is the same people always paying too much for stuff running up prices for everybody else???

The pricing of ammo is a lot more elastic than the pricing of a big asset like a home. The pricing can rise... and fall.... and vary widely (on a percentage basis).

Please... I respectfully request that people just be smart in their ammo purchasing and take a look at it with a longer term perspective. If you are too shortsighted, you will be taken advantage of.
 

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Everyone is not gouging I travel a lot and constantly look for .22 ammo at fair prices, I bought CCI blazers last week for $2.95 a box 50rds, that would workout to 29.50 a brick not cheap but a very fair price in this market, I also bought CCI mini mags 300 rd boxes at $25.00 a box. I am constantly looking to supply myself and a small group of Boy Scouts and I would do without rather than pay gouge pricing but so far I have not had to. I know most folks aren't in the position I am as I am on the road looking for rifles and ammo everyday but if you put in a little effort you can put the gougers out of business, again remember everyone is not gouging and good luck hunting.
 

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I only buy .22 when I find them at reasonable retail (2.50-4.00 a box), at least once a month, I catch a couple of boxes at Academy for an average if 3.00 bucks depending on brand/type,
Cabelas ill have an online sale (my wife works close to cabelas to pick them up for me, just bought a brick of CCI Blazers .22 for 26.00)
I will not buy from the gougers, yes I do shoot less often and attempt to conserve ammo.
all of my adult life, I would buy a brick or two every month when I would do my household shopping, to fuel my shooting trips.
now that it is tough to find and usually overpriced, I just save my money and wait for things to return to some what normal and buy when reasonable.
I have only been able to find 1000 rounds total so far this year at decent prices, but again, I will not support the gougers, just going to exercise patience and shoot no more than one box per shooting trip for now.
sc$&w 'em, hope they get stuck in the end
 

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I feel kind of bad for the people that don't know any better and overpay for a brick or two, but don't feel too bad for the people that show up looking for two bricks and clear the shelves off when they see only five left in stock. I only buy what I need when I need it keeping a brick at home if prices are too unreasonable. I hate paying $38 a brick but did so last fall to fuel a weekend squirrel hunt. Prices will go down when people stop panic buying everything they see on shelves. Will prices go back to what they were? I doubt it, but I am willing to be patient and only buy the bare minimum till supplies come back on strong and prices level out.
 

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I don't buy unless they are 0.06/round or cheaper. I have good luck at Walmart. I have two stores that I pass on my way to work. There is a pretty reliable way to use the Walmart app to let you know when ammo is in. Recently it has been CCI stinger 50 round, CCI minimag 100 round pack, CCI AR tactical 375 round bulk(my fav) and Winchester 333 and 555 bulk.
 

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Huh... by your own account, you buy the theory that prices went up $17 in a span of 20 years... and $25 in a span of 2 years... as some type of normal economic process?

Bricks of .22 can still be had at retail prices of $20-30 if you look.

Somebody is contributing to the current pricing/shortage even paying $50 for a brick. I'm not contending that homes & ammo are the same, nor that these situations are the exact same. ONLY that there are similarities. I think a lot of people are really going to REGRET paying WAY TOO MUCH for .22lr at the crazy prices being marketed and reported today. Just as they regretted paying WAY too much for a single family home during the 2006-07 time period. Jeez... I wonder if it is the same people always paying too much for stuff running up prices for everybody else???

The pricing of ammo is a lot more elastic than the pricing of a big asset like a home. The pricing can rise... and fall.... and vary widely (on a percentage basis).

Please... I respectfully request that people just be smart in their ammo purchasing and take a look at it with a longer term perspective. If you are too shortsighted, you will be taken advantage of.

I feel taken advantage of paying $3.60 for a gallon of gas, I use that allot more than 22 ammo and have no choice whatsoever. Really never felt taken advantage of in this sport, either you pay for it and be happy or you don't, very simple IMO.

Can't tell you the last time I shot my 10/22, I'm having way too much fun with 5-Stand / Sporting clays right now.:marchmellow: And I ain't driving around collecting 50 rounds at a time from stores, i have a life besides hunting down 22 ammo too, you know.

Some people like to collect coupons for groceries too, but I'm one of those people, who rather spend time making money, so I don't have to sweat over $20 up or down for a brick of 22's.

And yes, I understand, all people have a different budget and maybe can't afford / don't want to pay high prices for ammo.

But guys, this sport has such a wide variety, pick up your air rifles or shoot some clay and forget about the 22 shortage.


Hope, I didn't offend anybody, but that's just how I feel.
 

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I'm doing the same thing except we won't start sporting clays around here until may.
There is just too much snow and then when it thaws it'll be heavy mud.
but in May it should be good. Until then it's Wobble Trap (ugh!)
Better than nothing, too much snow for 5 stand.

I just bought a really old Interarms Rossi Gallery gun pre-trigger safety
so you know it's old. You can hold down the trigger and each pump will fire the gun.
I have enough to shoot that isn't 22LR.
That said if I am at a store and they have some I'll buy some.
Life is too short to spend your life chasing 22LR.
 

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My understanding is that the recent situation is/was the result of an increase in demand and not a reduction in the QTY being supplied/produced. (Perhaps both are involved, have producers shut down?) My guess is the new 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time .22 gun owners, including myself, have been “filling their pipeline” like I did. This is a sudden demand increase. Any "shortage" that results would be from prices being kept down in a non-market-driven way. One example would be if retailers kept their prices down in spite of the demand-increase.

If Walmart was charging $1000 per box would there be a shortage there? How about $500 ? How about $80 ? There is a price at which they would have units on the shelf all day, like they do with their other items. If they are charging significantly less than that magic (aka market) price, they will run out of stock. With the internet, most people know the pricing at most places. So Walmart is charging below market price. Why is Walmart charging less than the market price? I suspect they don't want to be identified in the news as benefiting from the increased demand, which may be temporary.

Is it immoral to buy something for a cost and sell it at a higher price? Should some arbitrage be illegal? If someone really really wants more .22 ammo, should they be denied the option of “over” paying to obtain it? How much would you pay for ammo if you have none, and civilization is ending soon? (Many people believe civilization is ending soon.) Should it be illegal for someone to pay $1000.00 for those concert tickets from a scalper (aka broker) if they have a face value of $50.00? Who is harmed when “overpriced” tickets are available to those with the means to pay for them? Is there a constitutional right to face-value below-market concert ticket prices? Do poor people have more rights to high-demand concert tickets than the wealthy?

I don't pass judgment on those who "buy up" stuff then sell it for a profit. Nor do I pass judgment on those who pass judgment on them. I understand the frustrations from the shortage and was happy that I was able to find rounds for my new .22. I actually was not aware of the .22 shortage when I bought them a few months ago. I was however aware of the general shortage soon after the previous event in Connecticut when I went online to buy hollow point .38 ammo about 9 months ago. (I decided to switch to hollow points for the .38 when I verified they are legal in NJ.) Almost everyone was out of stock but I found them at a “high” price. I bought one box since I really only needed 6 rounds, so to speak. Did I “overpay”? Was I “part of the problem” since I did not stand up to the bully-seller and boycott, sticking with rounds for home-defense that I decided were not the most appropriate?

These may be moral questions but Economics is not about morals and “shortage” is an Economic term. It results when a price is being kept “artificially” low. This can be due to government regulation or other factors, like corporate PR strategy, as possibly in the case of Walmart. If you want to buy ammo and it’s continually not in stock, there is a shortage. If most people are paying $xyz for widgets that are in stock in most areas, and you don’t like that current price, that’s not a shortage. When the shelves are back in stock on .22 ammo, we will know the new market price.

If everyone was selling .22 ammo at whatever price they could get for it, like most goods in the USA, the price would likely be higher and there would be no “shortage.” When "mood rings" came out they shot up to $55 and I paid it as a teenager. I had to stand in a line an hour long but the high price prevented a complete outage. I had to have one. A year later they were $5 since the fad (demand) had faded. If they charged $5 during the high-demand phase, there would have been a real shortage and I would have been denied my mood ring.

Yes, markets are not “perfect” and anomalies always exist and Economics takes place in the theoretical world. But I suspect that the .22 ammo “demand curve has shifted outwards” from the latest round of new gun control actions and paranoia and overreaction and political posturing. If this is the case, the new “normal” price will be higher than before the current shortage. And/or more suppliers will/have entered the market or will increase production, resulting in an “outward shift of the supply curve” for .22 ammo. This could/would result in a similar price as before, with more QTY being supplied to the market than before the shortage. A happy outcome for all, other than the gun grabbers of course. For now we can only wait to a return to that magical “equilibrium” the Economists are always taking about.
 

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Last summer I went in a GS, in another town, great shop gun prices seemed ok, until I saw the CCI 22 lr ammo 100rd box lead bullet $50.00 No thanks, Bye.
 
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I want to know where the guy was hunting that needed a brick of 22 to fuel a week end of squirrel hunting.As for price you can still find them if you are patient,I got 2 bricks of federal at wally world for 23.00 each.I could have bought more but I am not looking to make a profit off of my fellow hunters.I buy what I need for me and my grandson.
 

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I want to know where the guy was hunting that needed a brick of 22 to fuel a week end of squirrel hunting.As for price you can still find them if you are patient,I got 2 bricks of federal at wally world for 23.00 each.I could have bought more but I am not looking to make a profit off of my fellow hunters.I buy what I need for me and my grandson.
Northern NH/ME boarder. It's usually a pretty big group of us and we do a LOT of shooting, just not all at squirrels. Still, around here almost nobody hunts greys, and it's not too hard for the adults in the group to get our daily max of six if we really put the effort into it and all don't all go into one area. Usually we don't max out though since were out with our boys and let them take the first shots, still a really fun weekend!
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 · (Edited)
My understanding is that the recent situation is/was the result of an increase in demand and not a reduction in the QTY being supplied/produced. (Perhaps both are involved, have producers shut down?) My guess is the new 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time .22 gun owners, including myself, have been “filling their pipeline” like I did. This is a sudden demand increase. Any "shortage" that results would be from prices being kept down in a non-market-driven way. One example would be if retailers kept their prices down in spite of the demand-increase.

If Walmart was charging $1000 per box would there be a shortage there? How about $500 ? How about $80 ? There is a price at which they would have units on the shelf all day, like they do with their other items. If they are charging significantly less than that magic (aka market) price, they will run out of stock. With the internet, most people know the pricing at most places. So Walmart is charging below market price. Why is Walmart charging less than the market price? I suspect they don't want to be identified in the news as benefiting from the increased demand, which may be temporary.

Is it immoral to buy something for a cost and sell it at a higher price? Should some arbitrage be illegal? If someone really really wants more .22 ammo, should they be denied the option of “over” paying to obtain it? How much would you pay for ammo if you have none, and civilization is ending soon? (Many people believe civilization is ending soon.) Should it be illegal for someone to pay $1000.00 for those concert tickets from a scalper (aka broker) if they have a face value of $50.00? Who is harmed when “overpriced” tickets are available to those with the means to pay for them? Is there a constitutional right to face-value below-market concert ticket prices? Do poor people have more rights to high-demand concert tickets than the wealthy?

I don't pass judgment on those who "buy up" stuff then sell it for a profit. Nor do I pass judgment on those who pass judgment on them. I understand the frustrations from the shortage and was happy that I was able to find rounds for my new .22. I actually was not aware of the .22 shortage when I bought them a few months ago. I was however aware of the general shortage soon after the previous event in Connecticut when I went online to buy hollow point .38 ammo about 9 months ago. (I decided to switch to hollow points for the .38 when I verified they are legal in NJ.) Almost everyone was out of stock but I found them at a “high” price. I bought one box since I really only needed 6 rounds, so to speak. Did I “overpay”? Was I “part of the problem” since I did not stand up to the bully-seller and boycott, sticking with rounds for home-defense that I decided were not the most appropriate?

These may be moral questions but Economics is not about morals and “shortage” is an Economic term. It results when a price is being kept “artificially” low. This can be due to government regulation or other factors, like corporate PR strategy, as possibly in the case of Walmart. If you want to buy ammo and it’s continually not in stock, there is a shortage. If most people are paying $xyz for widgets that are in stock in most areas, and you don’t like that current price, that’s not a shortage. When the shelves are back in stock on .22 ammo, we will know the new market price.

If everyone was selling .22 ammo at whatever price they could get for it, like most goods in the USA, the price would likely be higher and there would be no “shortage.” When "mood rings" came out they shot up to $55 and I paid it as a teenager. I had to stand in a line an hour long but the high price prevented a complete outage. I had to have one. A year later they were $5 since the fad (demand) had faded. If they charged $5 during the high-demand phase, there would have been a real shortage and I would have been denied my mood ring.

Yes, markets are not “perfect” and anomalies always exist and Economics takes place in the theoretical world. But I suspect that the .22 ammo “demand curve has shifted outwards” from the latest round of new gun control actions and paranoia and overreaction and political posturing. If this is the case, the new “normal” price will be higher than before the current shortage. And/or more suppliers will/have entered the market or will increase production, resulting in an “outward shift of the supply curve” for .22 ammo. This could/would result in a similar price as before, with more QTY being supplied to the market than before the shortage. A happy outcome for all, other than the gun grabbers of course. For now we can only wait to a return to that magical “equilibrium” the Economists are always taking about.
I love it when you guys who are educated on economics get on the forums and explain the fundamentals as they apply to the .22lr ammo situation, as if the situation was unfolding in a textbook fashion, and all the parties concerned were acting rationally (as if often the presumption in economic theory).

I am not a conspiracy theorists, but I don't believe the .22 situation is unfolding in a purely textbook fashion. I believe there is some market manipulation going on. Between the government intrusion in conjunction with the games that the manufacturers, distributors, and retailers are playing with each other....the market is all out of whack. And I also believe there is A LOT of irrationality going on (AKA jugheads paying $90 for a brick) that is screwing up the entire system as well.

If A) consumers would behave rationally and let the overpriced stuff sit on the shelf and B) the manufacturers/suppliers would gear up accordingly to meet the increased demand.... the market would come into balance. This ALL should have happened by now... but it hasn't.... and that is what seems so strange and is indicative of the market manipulation IMO.

I could be wrong...but the situation just smells funny to me... and it stinks....
 

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20 years ago a brick of 22's was $8.

2 years ago they were $25, now they are about $50. I'm not sure i'm buying that theory.

Ammo prices work like gas prices. They go up like crazy, they go down 20% from the highs and all of a sudden people call them "cheap".

It's a human condition. They'll get you used to seeing a price, they drop it a bit and now it's a "good deal".

P.s: i also charge more for the work i do, can't work for the same price as 5 years ago when the cost of gas was roughly 50% less.
I bought a brick of .22 last week for $30 at a LGS. Big box stores and LGS with integrity are stilling selling their bricks in the $20-$30 range. Anyone charging more than that are guilty of price gauging and the suckers that buy it are enabling their price gouging. If people would stop paying the inflated prices they'd go down to normal retail prices everywhere.
 

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20 years ago a brick of 22's was $8.

2 years ago they were $25, now they are about $50. I'm not sure i'm buying that theory.

Ammo prices work like gas prices. They go up like crazy, they go down 20% from the highs and all of a sudden people call them "cheap".

It's a human condition. They'll get you used to seeing a price, they drop it a bit and now it's a "good deal".

P.s: i also charge more for the work i do, can't work for the same price as 5 years ago when the cost of gas was roughly 50% less.

Retail prices on .22lr is not 50 a brick. I bought 3 550 round Federal for 23.47 each last week. And gas isn't sold by resellers, so I don't see the comparison.
 
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